3. Captain Phillips
If 12 Years a Slave and Gravity are like two older brothers a year apart from each other, Captain Phillips is like the third youngest brother about three or four years younger, straggling be-hiving its older siblings, but doing a good job keeping up considering its age. The film has done relatively well at the box office, and given its fairly enthusiastic reviews, this is pretty much all it needed to do to secure a Best Picture nomination. The fact that Hollywood favorite Tom Hanks gives a terrific performance in the movie, which marks a bit of an awards season comeback for the two-time Oscar winning actor, is just an extra incentive that virtually guarantees a name call when the Oscar nominations are announced.
Nomination Chances: 95%
4. American Hustle
It's a bit dangerous including one of the few unknowns this high up on the list, sight-unseen, when so many of the other contenders are known quantities now, but that's how confident I am in this film. David O. Russell has had his admirers for awhile now, but if his films were a little heavy on raw talent and light on careful refinement earlier in his career, he seems to have the formula down now. With two-consecutive Oscar smashes in The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook, Russell has quickly become a favorite of the Academy, and the FBI/con-artists/politician mix that is at the heart of the subject matter of American Hustle should appeal to the Academy. Throw in an astounding cast of terrific young actors such as Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Jeremy Renner, and as long as the film isn't a total misstep, I got think American Hustle will at the very least be a nominee.
Nomination Chances: 75%