5. Saving Mr. Banks
While many having been predicting Saving Mr. Banks as a major Oscar player for quite some time, I have been a skeptical holdout up to this point. Personally, the film simply looked too sachrinated and glossy to be of major significance, and while director John Lee Hancock managed to overcome these criticisms to secure a Best Picture nomination for his film The Blind Side in 2009, I considered that to be a fluke. However, after its premiere at the London Film Festival, it appears pretty likely that Saving Mr. Banks will be a Best Picture nominee. The reviews out of London weren't ecstatic for the film, but they were surprisingly solid, even from the artsy set, which is probably good enough for a film such as this. Most importantly, the film is said to have moments of genuine comedy, which is key for a middle-brow film like Saving Mr. Banks (see Argo and The King's Speech). When you factor in the key British and Australian voting blocks, then things only get even rosier for Saving Mr. Banks.
Nomination Chances: 70%
6. Inside Llewyn Davis
Maybe even more than David O. Russell, the Coen Brothers have become the new directorial staples of the Academy. Once indie outsiders, since their Best Picture win for No Country for Old Men, they have been batting .750 in getting Best Picture nominations (a case of last generation's rebels being this generation's establishment, I guess). Inside Llweyn Davis, the Coens' latest film exploring the folk music scene in the early 1960's, first premiered earlier this year on the Croisette at the Cannes Film Festival where it was enthusiastically received, earning the runner-up prize from the Steven Spielberg headed jury. Since then, the film has strategically festival hopped, appearing at the Telluride and New York film festivals, and while it was just as warmly greeted in the States as it was in France, the low key nature of its campaign has become a bit concerning. With all the focus on the more high profile prestige pictures, you do wonder if Inside Llewyn Davis could be overlooked. Its voting block will likely come from the same people who propelled Amour, The Tree of Life, and the Coen's A Serious Man to Best Picture nominations (the high-art block), and they're likely not to be distracted by the Saving Mr. Banks of the world, but even on the high-brow front, Spike Jonze's Her, which was rapturously received by critics upon its debut in New York, could prove a very real threat, putting Inside Llewyn Davis in a bit of a precarious position at the moment.
Chances: 65%