9. Philomena
Since the Academy went to a variable Best Picture field, ranging anywhere from 5-10 nominees, part of the fun of predicting the Best Picture lineup is predicting how many nominees will be in the final field. As with the first two years under this brave new world, I am predicting that there will be nine Best Picture nominees when all is said in done, which makes Philomena my last current prediction for Best Picture. Now, admittingly, while I am not anticipating the film so much myself (and there are plenty of other films I would love to predict here instead), my gut tells me that Philomena just might sneak in. First, from the reviews coming out of the festival circuit, it's clear that Philomena is a well-executed middle-brow film, which is pretty much the definition of an Academy Award nominee for Best Picture. Secondly, the film is said to be just the right blend of comedy and drama, the type of comedy that is far from ever being described as subversive but has just enough bite to it to let 60-year-old woman feel like they're being naughty for laughing at it (but in a, you know, non-offensive way). Thirdly, with beloved British queen of Actress starring in the title role, Dame Judi Dench herself, the film is likely to receive large support from the Academy's significant British block (the same people who undoubtedly helped Slumdog Millionaire and The King's Speech to Best Picture wins). Finally, and probably most importantly, Philomena looks like it may be The Weinstein Company's best shot at Oscar glory, which means the film will receive the full benefit of an all-out campaign from the Oscar guru himself, Harvey Weinstein. For this reason alone, Philomena should be considered a serious Oscar contender.
Chances: 50%