7. The Wolf Of Wall Street
The movie hasn't even come out yet and it has already been a bit of a wild ride for The Wolf of Wall Street. Based on the autobiography of the corrupt Wall Street white-collar criminal Jordan Belfort, when Scorsese handed in his first cut of the film with a length approaching four hours and explicit material that, according to rumors, could very well earn the film an NC-17 rating, the prospects of a 2013 release looked dim. In fact, even though the film was never officially delayed, many pundits began to write the film off as a 2014 Oscar contender, but now Paramount has officially marked Christmas Day for a wide release of the film with a running time of 165 minutes. The studio also released a second trailer for film, which in the humble opinion of this film enthusiast, looks fantastic, but many Oscar pundits are skeptical that the film's edgy, darkly comedic tone won't jive with the Academy's historically more restrained predilections. However, many of these same prognosticators were doubtful over the prospects of Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained landing a Best Picture nod for very similar reasons last year as well, and we all know how that turned out. The Wolf of Wall Street is anything from a sure bet, but given Scorsese's excellent track record with the Academy as of late, I am cautiously more optimistic than some on its chances to break into 2014's Best Picture field.
Chances: 60%
8. Nebraska
Alexander Payne has lived the charmed life in his career with respect to his relationship with the Academy. Other than the exception of his debut feature film, Citizen Ruth, every one of Payne's movies have managed some sort of Oscar nomination. Three of these films have landed Payne Oscar nominations himself, including two Oscar victories in the Best Adapted Screenplay category for the films Sideways and The Descendants. In total, over five feature films, Payne has amassed six Oscar nominations for writing, directing, and producing, which only goes to show that the Academy really, really likes his work. This is why back in May, even after Nebraska's muted response from Cannes critics had many pundits declaring the film D.O.A. outside a possible Best Actor nomination for Bruce Dern, I was still pretty high on the film's Oscar outlook. The fact of the matter is European critics and Cannes Film Festival-goers tastes vary drastically from your average Academy member, and sure enough, as soon as Nebraska premiered to enthusiastic American audiences at Telluride (followed up a month later by screenings at the New York Film Festival), the film became a bona fide player. While teetering dangerously close to crossing over the "arrogant ass" threshold, I can't help but throwing in a, "I told you so". However, given the hyper-competitive year we're having, Nebraska is far from a sure thing. In fact, the film probably is right on the knife edge of being in or out at the moment, but given Payne's popularity with the Academy in the past, I'm betting Nebraska makes the cut.
Chances: 55%