Oscars 2017: 15 Movies Most Likely To Get Nominated For Best Picture
9. Manchester By The Sea
What Is It? Definitely not a documentary on the BBC's recent relocation. The crux of the idea is Casey Affleck returning to his hometown of the title following his brother's death and having to face up to his past.
Why Could It Be A Contender? Sundance hype was so focused on The Birth Of A Nation that the successes of Kenneth Lonergan's film passed everyone by, but over the past few months it's been slowly chugging away and gearing up for a release slap-bang in the middle of awards season. It's the sort of indie movie that could, with the right-placed campaign ads, find its way onto the ticket (see Room or Nebraska), bringing together tense drama and a dissection of modern America.
What Might Stop It? The rights war for the film was won by Amazon, meaning that this is primarily going to be a VOD release. There will be the required cinema opening to tick the boxes, but as we saw with Beasts Of No Nation last year that's no help; there's a sniffiness about the release model and likely an ingrained fear of endorsing it with an award. If it does make any headway, it's a major game-changer.