Oscars 2021: Final Predictions For Nominations In Every Category
1. Best Picture
NOMINEES:
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
2021's ceremony will mark the final year that the Best Picture field isn't fixed to a guaranteed slate of ten nominees, and given prior history we're therefore likely to end up with between eight and ten nominees.
Major frontrunner Nomadland is 100%, while The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, and Promising Young Woman have performed well enough in precursors to feel mostly safe.
The more unsure propositions are The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah - which has been underperforming most all season - and Sound of Metal.
It's possible one or two of the three could be beaten out by Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and News of the World, both of which have sustained surprisingly well throughout awards season.