Best Visual Effects
Chance of a nomination =
8/10 Chance of a win =
6/10 The money shot of The Dark Knight Rises is unquestionably the football field explosion sequence, but largely the film is a triumph of subtle visual effects applied to organic stuntwork, particularly during The Bat's flight scenes, which combined mounted and suspended vehicles with impressively photorealistic renderings of the Caped Crusader's airborne means of transport. The Batpod's visual effects, meanwhile, are admittedly a little spotty in places, but the overall success with which these effects are melded into the stunt-based action, and the fact that The Dark Knight was nominated for similar successes, makes it a fairly safe bet in this category, and something The Avengers will likely not be able to compete with. However, The Hobbit and Life of Pi are considered to be major threats, and their bombast might edge out the subtlety of TDKR's effects.
Best Director
Chance of a nomination =
5/10 Chance of a win =
0/10 This is the one that so-called "Nolanites" everywhere will be following very closely; whether Christopher Nolan, who has to this point only been nominated for his writing, will finally scoop up a directing nomination after having been nominated by the prestigious Director's Guild of America three times to date, for Memento, The Dark Knight and Inception. In many ways it might feel like a summation of his career thus far, yet a sizeable opinion that the film might not be quite up to the standard of The Dark Knight might work against him. However, steering a blockbuster of such an epic length towards an emotionally satisfying conclusion, as well as the mix of bravura action with strong themes and character development might finally net him that nomination he so desperately deserves. However, he will be facing extraordinarily stiff competition, with Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Steven Speilberg (Lincoln), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby), Terrence Malick (To The Wonder) and Ben Affleck (Argo) all touting new releases this year. While a win is virtually impossible, a nomination would be a relieving feather in the director's cap after so many previous snubs.