Best Picture
Chance of a nomination =
8/10 Chance of a win =
0/10 The widening of the Best Picture field has, in many eyes, devalued the stature of a "Best Picture nominee" marquee on posters and home video advertising, but it has allowed for some pleasantly diverse films, such as
A Serious Man,
The Tree of Life,
District 9,
Inglourious Basterds and
Toy Story 3 to receive nominations. The flipside is that it has also allowed laughably undeserving fare, such as
The Blind Side,
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and
The Help to become nominees, such that if Nolan's Rises is
not nominated, the new system is likely to endure a new bout of criticism. After all, with these films sitting at 67%, 47% and 76% on the Tomatometer respectively, while Rises perches on 87% with a much higher 8.0 average - as well as a 9.0 on IMDB - the feeling is that their nomination, and Rises' omission, would not reflect the popular sentiment. However, this would invite questions about who the Academy Awards are supposed to represent, and of course, the answer to that is the view of AMPAS, largely consisting of over-60s, white men, rather than the predominantly under-35 male crowd that have been travelling in their droves to see Nolan's opus. That said, it is abundantly clear that, with a wider nominee range, The Dark Knight would have secured a Best Picture nomination, and after Nolan's Inception picked up a nod, it is also very likely that Rises will find a space for itself, even if this year is absolutely packed with strong prestige and populist possibilities. Winning, however, is virtually impossible, more owing to the fact that the Academy is only ready to recognise a superhero film's place alongside high-minded arthouse fare, but not necessarily reward it in the major categories. That said, films such as Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master are likely to offer a legitimate challenge to Nolan that would extend beyond Academy prejudices, and I doubt few would argue with that. And now it's time to tally up the nominations and wins...