Can STAR TREK De-Geek The Franchise?
Any STAR TREK geek will tell you that box office is meaningless. That's because no STAR TREK film has made much money. Can this new STAR TREK take the franchise where it's never gone before ... namely, into the panties and wallets of average American moviegoers?
By most standards, the STAR TREK franchise has been a success. It's spawned many imitators, found an audience among a variety of entertainment platforms, and has enjoyed an enduring appeal with a rabid base of fans. Yet, the property has had one of the narrowest demographics imaginable: young male science fiction fans. No matter what any incarnation of the show has tried, the franchise has never managed to break through that small but loyal core to a wider audience. And by wider audience, I mean one that includes normal people like women. Or non-virgins. The movies reflect this disparity. Adjusting for inflation, only two of the previous ten STAR TREK films have grossed above $200 million dollars: STAR TREK THE MOTION PICTURE, and THE VOYAGE HOME. While that figure is nothing to laugh at, one must remember that the first TREK film barely made a profit due to its high cost, which led to the scaled back production of WRATH OF KHAN. The last film in the series, 2002's awful NEMESIS, earned an anemic $53 million adjusted dollars. While J.J. Abrams has loaded his reboot with some high-tech special effects and hot young bodies, it's hard to divine how well this flashy new machine can cross over to the mainstream. Most industry insiders are predicting around $75 million over its first weekend, while Paramount is conservatively predicting around $60 million. This spells a struggle for the film, which needs to cross $200 million to make any kind of profit. The film itself cost $150 million to make, marketing notwithstanding. Having seen the film in an opening night theater that was less than half full (and only one woman among the group), I am privately wondering how far this film can go. The new film plays slavish homage to the old series (the kiss of death), and revels in the same gibberish that cluttered every other permutation of the show in the past - red matter, phasers, time warps. While I'm sure every STAR TREK geek out there will be beating his tricorder over Abrams' new film, I seriously doubt that many heterosexual couples will be anxiously picking this movie for date night. I think the film will open huge. But given TREK'S limited fanbase and the threat of huge summer releases just weeks away, I doubt if TREK will do the box office damage necessary to end up with much left over. As it stands, I'm still calling the summer this way: 1. TRANSFORMERS 2. HARRY POTTER 3. TERMINATOR 4. ICE AGE 5. UP 6. STAR TREK 7. LAND OF THE LOST 8. ANGELS AND DEMONS 9. G.I. JOE 10. FUNNY PEOPLE 11. BRUNO 12. INGLORIOUS BASTERDS