Once upon a time, it seemed like Vice might have two nominations here, with both Sam Rockwell and Steve Carrell expected to be in contention. After some negative reviews, though, Carrell hasn't really had a look in, while Rockwell's fortunes have been mixed. Across many of the notable awards - the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAG, and Critics' Choice - all of nominated Adam Driver, Timothée Chalamet, Mahershala Ali, and Richard E. Grant, and there's nothing to suggest the Oscars will differ, with Ali the favourite to win at this stage.
The only toss up is between Rockwell and A Star Is Born's Sam Elliott. The Globes and BAFTAs went for Rockwell, Critics' Choice and SAG for Elliott. The latter is part of a film more likely to get some serious Oscars love, which should give him the edge, while Michael B. Jordan remains an outside bet. Also, let's give a mention to Hugh Grant, who absolutely deserves to WIN here for Paddington 2, but seemingly isn't going to get anything.
NCTJ-qualified journalist. Most definitely not a racing driver. Drink too much tea; eat too much peanut butter; watch too much TV. Sadly only the latter paying off so far.
A mix of wise-old man in a young man's body with a child-like wonder about him and a great otherworldly sensibility.