Why The Fall Guy Just Flopped
5. The Budget Is WAY Too Big
Last year felt like something of a reckoning for irresponsibly budgeted movies at the box office, given the sheer number of colossally priced tentpoles that underperformed or outright flopped.
But even if you put an asterisk next to some of 2023's movies due to pandemic-related cost increases, it doesn't seem like Hollywood is learning its lesson in 2024.
The Fall Guy's production budget has been estimated at anywhere from $125 million to $150 million, and even if we generously accept the lower number, the 2.5x rule dictates that it needs to gross just north of $300 million worldwide to be profitable.
That's a high degree of exposure for an action-comedy releasing in the current theatrical climate, and a figure which it now has no hope of reaching during its big-screen run.
Given the film's emphasis on practical stunt work, it truly feels like Universal should've been able to produce The Fall Guy for considerably less than $125 million.
$100 million or even $80 million with some scaled-down set-pieces would've greatly lessened the film's need to be a mega-hit, but once again, Hollywood egregiously over-spent on a project while also overestimating audience demand.