9. Sherlock Was Ahead of Moriarty During the Sweet Factory Investigation

Watch the scene with Sherlock investigating in the sweet factory. Does he seem a little
too confident? That might be the point of Cumberbatch's performance; this is the moment when everyone starts to suspect that it could actually be Sherlock who's committing the crimes. But there's confidence... and there's
not wearing any gloves at a crime scene. Sherlock wears gloves whenever he's investigating, so what can we deduce from him electing not to wear them at this point? What if he knows what was going to happen, so he decided to incriminate himself? Making a right mess of one of Lestrade's cases would certainly speed up "the Final Problem", and would lead him to Moriarty sooner. It's doesn't explain how he faked his own death, but this is definitely a theory John might like, as it explains why. But how would he suddenly realise then? Well, in the scene where he's examining substances through the microscope - the one where Molly claims she "doesn't count" - he mutters "I... owe... you." to himself. Has he worked out what's going to happen? And what does "I owe you" signify?