5. England
Forgive me England fans for putting our beloved, amazing national team on the list to miss out next summer, but there is a prospect that Poland and Ukraine can enter the mix and oust Roy Hodgson's side outside of even Group H's playoff place, and here is how... Poland have talented individuals, notably the Borussia Dortmund trio of Jakub Blaszykowski, Robert Lewandowski and Lukasz Piszcek, and have had a steady start with two wins (against Moldova and San Marino,) one loss and two draws, so far. They have yet to play Moldova again (3 points should be expected from that) and need to play England and Ukraine away plus Montenegro in Warsaw. A good draw in Podgorica suggests that Poland can play well away from home, however the loss against Ukraine on Saturday at the National Stadium will disappoint and frustrate the locals, who feel that their personnel should be capable of mounting a real challenge for a top two space. Ukraine, now without the retired Andriy Shevchenko, have on paper the best run-in of the 4 contenders in the frame with only Montenegro to be visited in June, in Ukraine's game in hand over the English. They are tighter in defence, but leaner when it comes to goals than their Polish neighbours to the West, suggests a more disciplined backline than the Polish, but may need to increase their scoring output to gain those all important positions (games vs the bottom two in Kiev may help), although a draw in Moldova shows that this has hindered their chances of pulling clear of Poland and being in amongst the Top 2 now.
A win against England in the last World Cup Qualifying group back in 2009 shows their credentials, but they need to turn those kind of results from then into the summer and the autumn qualifiers. Montenegro currently sit top of the group with 14 points and have a 2 point cushion over the English in second. The feared frontline of Delibasic, Belciraj and Vucinic have helped themselves to 8 of the 14 goals they've accrued so far. Montenegrins will be hoping for more of the same from them in their final four qualifiers where they visit Wembley and Warsaw and only have Ukraine at home. They will be hoping for at least 4 points from 9 there, plus an added three v Moldova in the last game bringing a total of 22 points, which should see them compete for the golden tickets of Rio via a play-off at least. England have displayed a tendency to drop points at home, while being stronger away (this was true in Euro 2012 qualifying- 8 points gained at Wembley; 10 from trips abroad). This will encourage both Poland and Montenegro, who have experience taking points from Wembley before. All-round firepower has been a good feature of England's play so far with 9 different goalscorers (and an own goal) getting them 20 goals. It just requires focus and concentration and quality for England to prevail and book their plane seat.