3. Sweden
For the Swedish, qualification for major tournaments has been regular occurence, having only missed out of 2010 World Cup since the turn of millennium, so this is why I consider their potential failure to qualify bigger than the Republic of Ireland's. The Swedes themselves sit 3rd in Group C, by virtue of goal difference, 5 points adrift of Germany and a level with both the Republic and Austria, (the Austrians have 2nd). Worringly for the Swedes, trips to Dublin and Vienna remain on their itinerary before qualification is through, and both their home records are good and Sweden's away record has produced 4 points out of a possible 6. This points to thrilling encounters and must win ones for them, as both teams tend to up their game for the visit of a big nation. Playing at home to the Germans may give the other two hope because Germany can turn it on away from home (as the Republic know), so the Swedes may feel that they need to secure 2nd before then. The attack has produced goals, fighting back from 4-0 v Germany in Berlin, so likes of Ibrahimovic and Rasmus Elm have helped to fire them to their current position, but their defence can concede away from home, so they must watch out for that and work on that ahead of those aforementioned trips in September and June respectively. The Republic must be wary that the result v Germany at the Aviva Stadium, must not be repeated against the Swedes, however their defence has been more watertight than that in other games (conceding one against the Faeroe Islands and Kazakhstan, before the
clean sheet in Solna on Friday.)
Saying that, conceding 2 against Austria was a disappointment. Home form must be the key to progressing to the play-offs, where vital points need to be accrued against the lowly Faeroe Island and Kazakhstan, in addition to these games versus Sweden and Austria where wins could decide 2nd, as head-to-head records may be the only separation between the three teams. Another factor may be goal difference if head to head records are inconclusive, so the Republic must remain tight and keep the deficit when they go to Cologne in October to down to possibly one. Goals must remain in the team with the likes of Robbie Keane, Kevin Doyle and Jon Walters, for that difference to increase from -1 currently, so those game against the bottom two must produce big scorelines in favour of the Irish. Austria are ahead of the Republic and Sweden on goal difference currently and ahead of their meeting with their Irish counterparts, a draw will be viewed as a good result before the return in Vienna in September where a win is a must, so we could see two attacking games their to see who has the better goal difference over each other (assuming a win and a draw for both nations will be the result of those encounters). Arguably the have the hardest run in where they have to play the top two and Ireland (twice), before they can potentially end on a high against the Faeroe's on October 15. Losing to the Welsh in a friendly and drawing with Kazakhstan away from Vienna, will disappoint the coach, so they must improve there, while maintaining a good home form and giving those expected to qualify a good run for their money (Germany came away with a 2-1 victory, last September). With that sort of run-in I think the Austrians will fall short of 2nd, but they will be aiming for France 2016, with the expanded format giving them a good chance of qualifying then, but I tip the Irish to just pip the Swedes on virtue of home games and the run in.