African Cup of Nations 2012: Who Will Win?

Though it might be considered a source of annoyance to Premiership managers and their European counterparts, robbing squads of their African talents at a crucial stage in the season, the African Nations competition remains a prestigious addition to the international football calendar. The whole continent - and specifically the co-host nations Equatorial Guinea and Gabon - will be alive with colour and in full voice to welcome the 16 finalists for the next month or so until the final on 12th February. With a number of high-profile absentees, including Egypt who have won the competition more than any other competitor, as well as two nations making their bows, the smart money would be on one of the former winners walking away with the cup come February, with only five actually in contention this time around. The absences of Algeria and South Africa also mean that five of the top eight African nations (according to FIFA's diabolical ranking system). But stranger things have happened, and if Egypt, Cameroon and Nigeria's failure to qualify teaches us anything, it's that any team on the continent is capable of beating any other, and that history can count for very little in the immediacy of a football match. The last World Cup ignited the planet's love of the African game, and proved without a doubt that there will be significant interest from other continents in the competition, as well as from European clubs in the talent on the pitch. And if there is a bargain to be had - in the vein of Newcastle's acquisitions of Cheick Tiote and Demba Ba - we can probably expect another flurry of deals to bring African players into Europe in the coming summer window. But what of the teams who qualified, and the groups they will face starting tomorrow? We look forward to the competition, starting with a group containing co-hosts Equatorial Guinea and one of the favourites Senegal...

Group A

Teams Equatorial Guinea Libya Senegal Zambia Senegal's fanbase will have been swelled markedly this week in the North East of England as Newcastle United united the nation's probable starting strike-force of Demba Ba and Papiss Demba Cisse with the £9m purchase of Cisse from Freiburg. Between the two of them, the strikers should be able to paper over some cracks in other areas of the squad. On paper, it is the Senegalese, under coach Amara Traore who look like favourites for the group, with a very strong attacking set-up including Moussa Sow and Mamadou Niang as well as the Newcastle based pair and a strong centre-half base of Marseille's Souleymane Diawara and Rennes' Kader Mangane. With Libya currently enjoying political freedom after the high-profile ousting of Colonel Gadaffi, and their team no doubt buoyed with confidence, it might be they who pip co-hosts Equatorial Guinea and Zambia to second place, though there inexperience in the competition might see them succumb to the much more experienced Zambian team. Zambia will also have the force of football romance behind them, with a potential return to Gabon, where the entire 1993 squad were killed in a plane crash, for the semi-finals sure to light a passionate fire beneath them. If form and experience are anything to go by, the group will likely be won by Senegal, with Zambia pipping Libya to second place in the same manner of their qualification group, and new-comers Equatorial Guinea bringing up the rear despite some talent in their squad. Venues: Estadio de Bata, Bata & Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, Malabo

Group B

Teams Ivory Coast Sudan Burkino Faso Angola Almost perennially named as favourites for the competition, the Ivory Coast can probably count themselves as such this time around once more, thanks to a very strong squad packed with European based players, and a juggernaut performance in qualifying. Didier Drogba might not know where he will be playing his club football next month, but he will certainly be the man to watch after seven goals in qualification. But with a squad that includes Cheick Tiote, Gervinho, the Toures and Salomon Kalou, the Elephants are definitely not a one-man team, and if they can live up to their billing, and get their stars firing on all cylinders, this competition could well be theirs to lose. The fight for second place is likely to be far closer, with Sudan looking like the favourites to qualify alongside the Ivory Coast, thanks to their strong showing in qualifying and a squad unity that can only come from 19 of the squad coming from only two teams. Sudan players know how to play together, and are likely to edge out a Burkina Faso team whose qualifying campaign saw them largely untested, and the Angolans who will probably finish third. Venues: Estadio de Bata, Bata & Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, Malabo

Group C

Teams Gabon Niger Morocco Tunisia With the two North African nations fighting it out for the top berth in this group, it looks to be the least clear-cut of all four groups in this year's competition. Both Tunisia and Morocco have the experience and squad talent to get to the very highest level this year and there is only a hair's breadth between the two, which makes deciding a group winner a difficult prospect. If Morocco can get notoriously grumpy playmaker Adel Taarabt to his best, it is they who have the best chance to win the group Host nation Gabon have the advantage of playing at home, and in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Daniel Cousin they have a strike-force who could put the ball in the net - but their squad lacks the kind of talent depth that both Tunisia and Morocco can boast, even if Tunisia are comparatively a little light up front. If the Gabon strikers can score enough goals, they might follow Morocco through at the cost of Tunisia, especially with home advantage potentially coming in to play, but I would count it as no small shock. One thing that seems certain however, is the group exit of Niger: the competition debutantes boast a largely unheard of squad without the pedigree or the experience to make any kind of waves in Gabon, and it would take an almighty underdog story for them to get anywhere. Venues: Stade de Franceville, Franceville & Stade d'Angondjé, Libreville

Group D

Teams Ghana Botswana Mali Guinea Another group which looks like a potential walk-over, this time for four-time winners Ghana, who are the only African nation to have made any kind of real move onto the international stage - and it is they who look the most likely to realise the African dream of winning a world cup. They aren't quite there yet, but they are definitely a contender for this competition with quality right through the team, and the ability to close up shop and sit on small leads (they scored only four goals in five games on the way to 2010's final). Mali are easily the second best team in the group, with stand-out players like Mobido Maiga, Seydou Keita and Cheick Diabate among the ranks, as well as a host of French based talent. They should finish second in the group as long as they can overcome a not easily pushed aside Guinea team - whose free-scoring midfielder (on the international stage anyway) Pascal Feindouno looks like the player most likely to move to a new club after the tournament, having left FC Sion in the wake of their 36 points deduction. Venues: Stade de Franceville, Franceville & Stade d'Angondjé, Libreville

Who will win?

With 7-times winners Egypt not in the pot, as well as a host of other high-profile absentees - Cameroon, Nigeria, and Congo DR - the competition is wide open, though the larger number of European league players within the Ivory Coast, Senegal and Ghana squads make them pundits' favourites from the outset. Based on past performances, Ghana will probably be the most confident, as they've previously won the competition four times, and are the only team from the top five most successful Cup of Nations teams to have qualified. While the Ivory Coast and Ghana are likely to be favourites for the final from the off, the attacking potency of Senegal definitely makes them the outside bet of the competition. And it is a bet I personally will be taking.