UFC Fox 2 Preview: Rashad Evans & The Dirty Little Secret

"Sugar" Rashad Evans (16-1-1) headlines the UFC on FOX event this weekend, January 28, 2012. His opponent is the new MMA prototype of young, hyper-athletic, next generation fighter, Phil Davis (9-0), a fighter cut from the same cloth as current champion Jon Jones. Evans has been the number 1 contender to reclaim his old belt for nearly two years now and is the consensus #2 light heavyweight in the world by every reputable poll. He is an athletic, powerful collegiate wrestler with quick hands and good power. By every measure, including his phenomenal record with wins over Rampage, Liddell, Bisping, Thiago Silva, and Tito Ortiz, Evans is a top tier fighter. One of the elites. Or so you would think, but Rashad Evans has a dirty, little secret. A secret that he's been able to conceal with lucky timing, wrestling, and quickness. A secret that the casual MMA fan would never know and something the UFC would never admit. Rashad Evans has no chin. The Wrestling Blanket In truth, Rashad was a decidedly average collegiate wrestler (48-34), but he has enough pedigree and natural ability to easily secure a take down against a LHW division that is surprisingly sparse on quality wrestlers. That single skill, the take down, is enough to get you a win. Sure, the other fighter will look like they've just participated in a spin class rather than a fight, but ... hey, a win is a win! The unified rules of mixed martial arts removed all of the countermeasures towards wrestlers, particularly knees to a grounded opponent's head or face and soccer-style kicks. Since then, wrestlers have been able to charge in with near reckless abandon without much concern of catching a shin bone in the skull, just so long as one hand is touching the ground. Kinda lame, right? Rashad wasn't always this way. At one time, he used his phenomenal hand speed and power to stand with opponents. He's quick, elusive, and explosive. And he wracked up a nice streak of finishes, four knockouts in six fights. That all changed in a instant. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida didn't just knock Rashad out ... he smote him. Ever since that fateful ass whooping, Rashad has been a different fighter. Now he comes blazing out of the gate pretending that he's interested in slugging it out, but only long enough to set up a single or double leg. It's also worth mentioning that Rashad joined Greg Jackson's Submission Fighting for a large portion of his career, a camp that is notorious for avoiding a fight in favor of out-pointing the opponent for a decision. So much so that Dana White famously said, "You'll see guys who are traditionally exciting fighters, but when they go to the Greg Jackson camp they become safety first fighters." Whether it was pre- or post-Machida, Evans is able to pull wins out without exposing the truth about his chin by utilizing one of the most reviled MMA techniques: the glorious Lay-n-Pray. That is the primary reason that his jaw remains a secret. The Truth About His Record As I mentioned above, Rashad has several wins over name opponents. A casual glance at his record might impress the average fan, but if you dig, you'll find that Rashad has a lucky talent for entering fights at the perfect time against dangerous opponents or throwing on the wrestling blanket for 3 rounds (8 decisions in 16 victories). Let's examine his UFC record. Rashad joined the cast of The Ultimate Fighter 2 as a heavyweight. You might think that the bigger opponents would be the first to expose Rashad's glass jaw, but in fact he had such a huge speed advantage that he was hardly in danger during the show. He fought three times on the show, all of which were won by ... serial lay-n-pray (decisions). Here's what he did after the show ended: Brad Imes (Ultimate Fighter 2 Finale): 0-3 UFC record. Sam Hoger (Ultimate Fight Night 4): 2-4 UFC record. Stephen Bonnar (Ultimate Fight Night 5): though a promotion favorite, he's still middling brawler. UFC record 8-6. Jason Lambert (UFC 63): went 4-4 in the UFC and finished his career after Rashad just 3-6. Sean Salmon (UFC Fight Night 8): Salmon was 9-1 before Rashad in small promotions and went 9-14 since. Those are the journeymen and chumps that Rashad beat on his way up. He took a big jump in competition starting with UFC 78. Let's look at his luck against other contenders and top level competition: Michael Bisping (UFC 78): even though Bisping was undefeated (14-0), the Brit has some of the worst take down defense in the division, particularly back in 2007. Even with that substantial advantage, SPLIT decision. Chuck Liddell (UFC 88): the Iceman was absolutely and completely done at this point, already suffering a brutal KO from Rampage and finishing his career with two more KOs after Rashad. Forrest Griffin (UFC 92): despite being a fan favorite, Forrest is one of the least talented UFC champion in the last 5 years and the worst LHW champion ever. Thiago Silva (UFC 108): Thiago was suffering from a three herniated discs coming into the fight that greatly affected his training, cardio, and grappling. Thiago still took him to a decision. Quinton Jackson (UFC 114): Rampage had taken time off of fighting to film the A-Team (15 months!) and ballooned in weight on the movie set. Again, another decision despite more rust than . Tito Ortiz (UFC 133): multiple back and neck surgeries, aged 37 years old, and a 15-year fight career. In most countries, it's illegal to abuse the elderly. Yes, Rashad beat the men that were put in front of him ... but its naive not to examine the circumstances surrounding the fight. And those circumstances are ... Sugar Rashad has never beaten in an in-form opponent with wrestling pedigree. Mr. Glass So with Rashad's key to victory (wrestling blanket) and the unbelievable coincidence of luck in building his record, allow me now to start illustrating the truth about Rashad. His chin is only slightly more reliable than Mel Gibon's sobriety. The destruction of Sugar Rashad by karate master, Lyoto Machida, has been immortalized across the World Wide Web, so that needs no re-visiting. Rather I think that the most telling fights on Rashad have been his victories. In particular, against Thiago Silva and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. In both of those fights, Rashad danced a little and worked his take downs with a modestly aggressive lay and pray strategy. Yet late in each fight, third round, as Rashad started to tire and his shot started to slow, he got caught. Not a damning shot, but a nick that left him ... surprisingly ... staggered. In fact against Rampage, Rashad nearly knocked himself out by shooting for a double and crashing into Jackson's thigh. It was by sheer luck that Rashad fell this way and that way just outside of Rampage's clubbing fists of fury. In each instance, Rashad was able to hide under that wrestling blanket to clear the cobwebs and desperately cling to victory after out pointing his opponent for the first two rounds. Remember what Dana White said about Greg Jackson fighters? Hmm. All of this might be compelling evidence, but still you might ask me: Rob, how can a fighter with 18 career bouts still have an undiscovered glass jaw? Well, I can assure you there is precedent. Andrei Arlovski was 15-5, a former UFC heavyweight champion, going into his Affliction fight with Fedor Emelianenko. Andrei, at the time (2009), had the best technical boxing of any HW. He had 11 of his 15 wins by KO. Sure, he'd hit the canvas a few times (4 times KO'd), but he was riding a 5-fight win streak, and was considered one of the biggest tests of Fedor's career (after Mirko and Big Nog, of course). About 3 minutes later, Andrei Arlovski was face down and searching for unicorns. His secret was finally out. Andrei has perhaps the worst chin in the heavyweight division. He has since been KTFO three more times and is nearly untouchable by major promotions for his propensity towards comatose slumber parties inside the any nearby rings or cages. Someday, I guarantee you, we'll find out the same thing against Sugar Rashad Evans. I guarantee it. UFC on FOX2 With all of that being said, what is my prediction for Phil Davis (9-0)? While Phil Davis is a better wrestler (Division I champion at Penn State) and the larger fighter (3" taller and 4" reach advantage), he's not a striker. Only two of Davis' wins have come by knockout. I actually think that Rashad will slip out of this fight with another Decision victory. Their wrestling will negate each other, so Rashad will dance and stick a jab for three five rounds for a rather dissatisfying fight. Of course, anything can happen and often does happen, but 9 times out of 10 that's how I'm seeing this one turn out. His lucky streak, though, will end when he faces Jon Jones (15-1, 8 KOs). Predictions: Rashad Evans DECISION over Phil Davis Chael Sonnen DECISION over Michael Bisping Demian Maia ROUND 2 Submission over Chris Weidman