Celtic vs Juventus - Champions League Last 16 Draw Analysis
Celtic were handed with a difficult draw in Nyon today, as they were paired with Italian giants Juventus. Many fans had felt this was the clubs best ever chance to make it to the Last 8 of the UEFA Champions League for the first time. And a tie against Malaga, Schalke or even PSG would have been seen as an excellent opportunity to do that. Being paired with the Serie A champions will certainly put a dent in many fans ambitions as they are possibly the toughest team Celtic could have drawn. However, there is no reason for Celtic to fear Juventus despite the Italians being favourites. Celtic have shown this season that they can match some of the best sides in Europe when they beat Barcelona at home and also trumped last-seasons quarter-finalists Benfica as well as wealthy Spartak Moscow. The Parkhead side have also beaten Juventus at home in the past. In the 2001/02 season the Italians came to Celtic Park in a group stage match and left on the wrong end of a 4-3 beating. Celtic can take much heart from that as the current Juventus side certainly doesnt have the same fear factor of a decade ago when the likes of Pavel Nedved, David Trezeguet and Alessandro Del Piero played for the club. However, Antonio Contes side are quite different to the team of a decade ago which was filled with world class players. They have a much more unified and hard-working squad where teamwork and understanding are the main catalysts of success rather than individual brilliance. And The Old Lady have certainly shown Italian football isnt dead and buried as they topped a group containing last seasons champions Chelsea as well as ultra-rich Ukrainians Shakhtar Donetsk. Despite Celtics formidable home record, the Italians can also boast an impressive record at their stadium. The Juventus Stadium opened last year and since then Juve have only lost once at their new home ground, when Inter Milan beat them 3-1 last month. Despite both sides impressive Champions League campaigns, they both have several problems that could affect their squad going into the Last 16. Juventus will probably not have key defender Giorgio Chiellini for the tie, the clubs vice-captain has been ruled out for several months due to a calf injury and will be very likely to miss the first leg of the tie and will struggle to make the second. This has come at the worst time for Juventus who have just terminated Brazilian defender Lucios contract. They will now only have three central defenders available until Chiellini makes his return and as they generally play a 3-5-2 formation this could cause a big problem within the squad. If a new player isnt acquired in January then Juventus will have to play the same backline in every match between now and February. It is unlikely Conte would switch to a 4-4-2 and any further injuries would force him to play a midfielder in the centre-back position. In addition to Chiellini, the small Juventus squad is also being stretched by the fact Simone Pepe and Nicklas Bendtner will both be likely to miss the tie. Neither have played much this season but their absences will mean that first-team players will have to play more matches and any further injuries could cause big problems. The club is also suffering disciplinary problems with young midfielder Paul Pogba. The ex-Man United player had been an important member of Contes team this season but was recently dropped from the squad due to timekeeping issues. The hot-headed youngster could continue to cause problems for the squad and may find himself out of the tie if he doesnt mature his behaviour quickly. Manager Antonio Conte has also only returned to the dugout this month following a four-month ban for his part in the latest match-fixing scandal to plague Italian football. Whether this will affect Juventus form in the second-half of the season in unknown but Inter Milans recent victory shows Juve arent unbeatable and if a serious challenger emerges from the four teams that are close behind them then there will be a title fight which will take a huge toll on the already stretched Juve squad. Celtic do not currently have any injuries which are expected to last until mid-February. However, Captain Scott Brown is suffering from a degenerative hip problem which may require surgery. He is currently not troubled by it but if the problem returns it could rule him out of the tie. Celtic will also have a major advantage over Juventus in that have a much easier domestic schedule. Despite a poor start to the season which currently sees Celtic only four points clear of Motherwell, the club are now hitting form and without Rangers to challenge them should be well clear of the chasing pack by February. Such is Celtics domestic dominance that Neil Lennon could possibly consider playing weakened sides in the matches preceding the Last 16 ties. However, Lennons greatest worry comes in the form of the January transfer window. Almost all of his players have been subject to interest from richer clubs Juve themselves are said to be considering a bid for Gary Hooper and it will be difficult to hold onto his stars in the face of this. Despite several players stating they want to continue in Celtics Champions League campaign, big money offers for the likes of Victor Wanyama, Fraser Forster and Gary Hooper would be difficult to turn down for both club and player. Despite the threat of losing key players, Celtic have shown over the last few seasons that they have an excellent scouting system and if any big-money departures do happen then the money could be used to fund a replacement. The majority of Celtics signings over the last few years have been around £500,000 to £2 million due to financial constraints. Yet the club is currently flushed with cash having earned over £20 million from Champions League participation and a £10m+ departure could see Lennon given a large January transfer war chest to possibly go and improve the squad. Both teams have possible concerns going into the match, but Celtic are seemingly in a stronger position as a club which could be a boost to their chances of causing an upset. Despite the heroic win over Barcelona, Juventus play a more similar style to Celtic and it is likely that the tactics used against Barcelona would be less effective. Celtic will probably have to come out and match Juventus rather than defend like they did against Barca and the superior quality of the Italians could swing the tie in their favour. Both clubs boast a fierce home record and the most likely outcome would be a home win for each side. The fact that the second-leg is in Turin goes in Juventus favour as if the match goes to extra-time then they will play in front of their own fans for the extra 30 minutes. Celtic have previously been knocked out in almost that exact circumstance when they matched AC Milan 0-0 over both legs then lost to an extra-time goal from Kaka. Overall, this tie will likely go down a similar route. It will be very tight over the two legs but Juventus should edge it. However, both my heart and head say upsets are possible in football and no-one Celtic should rule out the possibility of seeing a Scottish team in the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the very first time.