Despite some silliness where he claimed he thought his newly rebuild side could challenge for the Champions League, Alan Pardew said this summer that he would be "happy" with 48 points this season - a single point less than Newcastle managed last season. Now, even that looks like it might be out of his reach. At this point last season, Newcastle had 11 points, having won three games and drawn two, and having already played Man City and Liverpool (suggesting that the overall picture of the opponents so far had been tougher than what we've faced this term). From there, despite the loss to Sunderland, Newcastle won 7 of their next 10 games, including victories over Chelsea, Spurs and Man Utd, before the wheels came off against Arsenal, with the points gained from that point onwards numbering just 16. So far, the suggestion that the team are dead and buried has been laughed off (nervously by some), but this is now the key part of the season. We're currently only four points away from the point we were last season, but it is beyond unlikely that this team are going to suddenly start being invincible, and winning 7 in 10 to shoot up the table as they did last season. This is more like the team, minus Yohan Cabaye, and with a weakened squad in key areas, that picked up just 16 points in 20 games last season. So is it time to panic yet? Pardew's target of 48 points fits with the club's announced target of a minimum finish of 10th - in the seasons since Newcastle were relegated, the average finishing position for teams with 48 points was indeed 10th (11th place in 2013/14, 9th in 2012/13, 10th in 2011/12, joint 9th in 2010/11, 11th in 2009/10), so clearly that has played into the reckoning. But really, how are Newcastle going to turn this season's haul of 7 points into 48 without something dramatic changing? Pardew's Premier League win victory since that Arsenal game is just 22%, suggesting that on current form, Newcastle will win just 7 more games - and amass just 21 points - while the draw record over the same period of 19%, would suggest we will draw 6 games, and pick up 6 more points. I don't know if you're keeping track, but that doesn't make 48 points. Unless Newcastle do something dramatic on the pitch and fix the problems that are currently threatening to wipe out quarter of the season already, they are mathematically on course to pick up a grand total of 34 points by the end of the season. That is the picture that emerges from backing the same manager to continue to do the same thing with the same players and the same system as he currently is, and that picture is relegation. So while some fans will continue to complain that a minimum target of 10th place isn't ambitious enough, maybe we should be more concerned that players and former players are still coming out in support of the manager, and calling him "fantastic". Shouldn't we be aiming higher than this?
